{"id":15612,"date":"2026-10-28T14:58:02","date_gmt":"2026-10-28T14:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bjftradinggroup.com\/?p=15612"},"modified":"2026-10-28T14:58:02","modified_gmt":"2026-10-28T14:58:02","slug":"cash-and-carry-arbitrage-crypto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bjftradinggroup.com\/tr\/cash-and-carry-arbitrage-crypto\/","title":{"rendered":"Kriptoda Cash-and-Carry Arbitraj\u0131: Spot\u2013Vadeli Baz Ticareti Rakamlarla A\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\nBJF TRADING GROUP \u00b7 KR\u0130PTO ARB\u0130TRAJI<\/span><\/p>\n

Kriptoda Cash-and-Carry Arbitraj\u0131: Spot–Vadeli Baz Ticareti Rakamlarla A\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131<\/span><\/h2>\n

\u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k bir bitcoin vadeli i\u015flem (futures) kontrat\u0131 spot fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, coini sat\u0131n alabilir, vadeli kontrat\u0131 satabilir ve aradaki fark\u0131 kilitleyebilirsiniz. \u0130\u015fte buna cash-and-carry arbitraj\u0131 denir. Risksiz gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ve fiyat riski ger\u00e7ekten hedge edilmi\u015ftir; ancak ger\u00e7ek getiri komisyonlara, marjin yap\u0131s\u0131na, sermayenizin maliyetine ve piyasa %30 y\u00fckselirse k\u0131sa (short) baca\u011fa ne olaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bu rehber, i\u015flemin tamam\u0131n\u0131 rakamlarla ad\u0131m ad\u0131m anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\nBu rehberde<\/strong><\/p>\n
    \n
  1. Cash-and-carry arbitraj\u0131 nedir<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. Baz, contango ve backwardation<\/a><\/li>\n
  3. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcml\u00fc bir BTC \u00f6rne\u011fi<\/a><\/li>\n
  4. Baz neden olu\u015fur<\/a><\/li>\n
  5. Vadeli kontratlar ve perpetual funding kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131<\/a><\/li>\n
  6. Lineer ve ters (inverse) kontratlar: marjin karar\u0131<\/a><\/li>\n
  7. Maliyetler, ba\u015faba\u015f noktas\u0131 ve e\u015fik getiriniz<\/a><\/li>\n
  8. Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m: i\u015flemi y\u00fcr\u00fctmek<\/a><\/li>\n
  9. Erken \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f, vadeye kadar tutma ve roll etme<\/a><\/li>\n
  10. Hedge sonras\u0131nda kalan riskler<\/a><\/li>\n
  11. S\u0131k yap\u0131lan hatalar<\/a><\/li>\n
  12. \u0130zleme ve otomasyon<\/a><\/li>\n
  13. S\u0131k\u00e7a Sorulan Sorular<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n

    Cash-and-carry arbitraj\u0131 nedir<\/h2>\n

    K\u0131sa cevap:<\/strong> cash-and-carry arbitraj\u0131, bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 spot piyasada sat\u0131n al\u0131rken ayn\u0131 anda ayn\u0131 varl\u0131k \u00fczerinde daha y\u00fcksek fiyattan i\u015flem g\u00f6ren bir vadeli i\u015flem (futures) kontrat\u0131n\u0131 satmak demektir. \u0130ki pozisyon birbirinin fiyat riskini dengeler. Vade sonunda vadeli fiyat spot fiyata yak\u0131nsar; b\u00f6ylece giri\u015fte kilitledi\u011finiz fark (baz), arada coin ne yaparsa yaps\u0131n br\u00fct k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131z olur.<\/p>\n

    Ad\u0131 geleneksel emtia piyasalar\u0131ndan gelir: fiziksel mal i\u00e7in nakit (cash) \u00f6dersiniz ve vadeli teslim tarihine kadar onu ta\u015f\u0131rs\u0131n\u0131z (carry; depolar, sigortalar, finanse edersiniz). Kriptoda depo yoktur ama yine de bir ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti vard\u0131r: coine ba\u011flanan sermaye, k\u0131sa pozisyonun marjini, i\u015flem komisyonlar\u0131 ve fonlar\u0131 bir borsada tutman\u0131n riski.<\/p>\n

    Cash-and-carry, piyasa n\u00f6tr bir g\u00f6reli de\u011fer (relative-value) i\u015flemidir. Bitcoinin nereye gidece\u011fini tahmin etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaz. Kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lara vadeli kontrat satmaya istekli olan herkese piyasan\u0131n \u00f6dedi\u011fi bir getiriyi kazan\u0131r. Bu y\u00fczden fonlar ve hazine masalar\u0131 aras\u0131nda pop\u00fclerdir ve \u00e7ok fazla sermaye pe\u015fine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde getirisi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

    Enstr\u00fcmanlar\u0131n kendisine yeniyseniz, vadeli i\u015flemlerin spot piyasadan nas\u0131l farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131<\/a> anlatan rehberimizle ba\u015flay\u0131n. Bu rehber, vadeli i\u015flem kontrat\u0131n\u0131n ve marjinin ne oldu\u011funu bildi\u011finizi varsayar.<\/p>\n

    Baz, contango ve backwardation<\/h2>\n

    Baz (basis)<\/strong>, vadeli fiyat ile spot fiyat aras\u0131ndaki farkt\u0131r. Trader’lar onu \u00fc\u00e7 \u015fekilde ifade eder:<\/p>\n

    \n
    F − S<\/span>Mutlak baz<\/span>coin ba\u015f\u0131na dolar olarak, \u00f6rn. $101,800 − $100,000 = $1,800<\/span><\/div>\n
    (F − S) \/ S<\/span>Baz, %<\/span>vadeye kadar kilitledi\u011finiz getiri: $1,800 \/ $100,000 = 1.80%<\/span><\/div>\n
    × 365 \/ g\u00fcn<\/span>Y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f baz<\/span>farkl\u0131 vadelere sahip kontratlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir k\u0131lar: 1.80% × 365 \/ 91 = y\u0131lda 7.22%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

    Basit (bile\u015fik olmayan) y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131rma; \u00e7o\u011fu panel bu \u015fekilde g\u00f6sterir. Bile\u015fik rakamlar biraz daha y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n

    Vadeli kontratlar spotun \u00fczerinde<\/strong> i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde piyasa contango<\/strong> durumundad\u0131r. Bu kripto i\u00e7in normal durumdur, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc vadeli i\u015flem kullanan trader’lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 long pozisyon ister. Cash-and-carry i\u00e7in contango gerekir.<\/p>\n

    Vadeli kontratlar spotun alt\u0131nda<\/strong> i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde piyasa backwardation<\/strong> durumundad\u0131r. Bu, \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015flerden sonra, zorunlu kald\u0131ra\u00e7 azaltma d\u00f6nemlerinde veya coin \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 almak pahal\u0131 oldu\u011funda ya\u015fan\u0131r. Teoride i\u015flemi tersine \u00e7evirebilirsiniz (spotta short, vadelide long), ancak spot kriptoda short a\u00e7mak coini marjinle \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 almay\u0131 gerektirir; bu da \u00e7o\u011fu zaman s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve pahal\u0131d\u0131r. Uygulay\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu contango’nun geri d\u00f6nmesini bekler.<\/p>\n

    Temel \u00f6zellik yak\u0131nsamad\u0131r (convergence)<\/strong>: vadeli bir kontrat vade sonunda spot endekse g\u00f6re uzla\u015f\u0131r, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla baz vade tarihinde s\u0131f\u0131ra inmek zorundad\u0131r. Bundan \u00f6nce baz serbest\u00e7e hareket eder: geni\u015fleyebilir, daralabilir veya k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine negatife d\u00f6nebilir. Sonucun kesin oldu\u011fu tek nokta yak\u0131nsamad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

    \"Spot
    Temsili sim\u00fclasyon: vadeli fiyat (alt\u0131n rengi) \u00e7eyrek boyunca spotun (mavi) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131r ve vade sonunda onunla bulu\u015fur. Alt panel, y\u00fczde olarak baz\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131ra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir. Ger\u00e7ek fiyat seyirleri daha dalgal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcml\u00fc bir BTC \u00f6rne\u011fi<\/h2>\n

    A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki t\u00fcm fiyatlar, hesaplamay\u0131 kolay takip edilebilir k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in se\u00e7ilmi\u015f temsili yuvarlak rakamlard\u0131r; belirli bir g\u00fcn\u00fcn kotasyonu de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n